Signature Bank stock gained 4.3% last week, what to expect?

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Signature Bank Stocks (NASDAQ: SBNY) gained 4.3% last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 0.6%). However, the trend observed over the last ten days (16% drop vs 4.5%) and one month (16% drop vs 7.2%) was quite the opposite. The current stock market volatility could be partly attributed to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, and partly because of record inflation figures in the United States

The company is a New York-based, full-service commercial bank serving both businesses and high net worth individuals. Additionally, it has a digital payment platform called “Signet” for its institutional clients, which uses Blockchain technology to transact in real time and seamlessly. Notably, the bank is one of the few lenders in the world to offer loans secured by certain cryptocurrencies. It exceeded Street expectations in the recently released fourth quarter results. Net income rose 57% year-on-year to $272 million, driven primarily by 36% growth in total revenue. Revenues benefited from strong growth in outstanding loans and deposits, partially offset by a lower net interest margin. Overall, revenue grew 26% year-on-year to $2 billion for the full year of 2021.

Now, should SBNY stock rise further, or can we expect a correction? We believe there is a 58% chance of a rise in Signature Bank shares over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of share price trends over the past ten last years. See our analysis on Signature Bank Stock Upside Chance.

Twenty-one day: SBNY -16%, vs. S&P500 -7.2%; Underperforming market

(1% probability event; 58% upside probability over the next 21 days)

  • Signature Bank Stocks lost 16% over the past twenty-one trading days (one month), versus a broader market (S&P500) down 7.2%
  • A change of -16% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 1% probability event, which has occurred 26 out of 2515 times in the last ten years
  • Of these 26 instances, the stock has seen positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 15 occasions.
  • This points to a 58% chance the stock will rise over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten days: SBNY -16%, vs. S&P500 -4.5%; Underperforming market

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  • Signature Bank Stocks decreased by 16% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), relative to a broader market (S&P500) down 4.5%
  • A change of -16% or more over ten trading days is an event of less than 1% probability, which has occurred 24 out of 2516 times in the last ten years
  • Of these 24 instances, the stock has seen positive movement over the next ten trading days on 8 occasions.
  • This points to a 33% chance that the stock will rise over the next ten trading days

Five days: SBNY 4.3%, vs. S&P500 -0.6%; Market outperformed

(15% probability event; 51% upside probability over the next five days)

  • Signature Bank Stocks gained 4.3% over a five-day trading period ending 03/14/2022, vs broad market (S&P500) down 0.6%
  • A change of 4.3% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 15% probability event, which has occurred 382 out of 2516 times in the last ten years
  • Of these 382 instances, the stock has seen positive movement over the next five trading days on 193 occasions.
  • This points to a 51% chance the stock will rise over the next five trading days

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Return March 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
Back SBNY -16% -ten% 93%
S&P 500 return -5% -13% 85%
Performance of the Trefis MS portfolio -6% -15% 233%

[1] Cumulative monthly and cumulative annual as of 03/15/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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