Sony’s latest financial guidance, included in a presentation to investors on Wednesday, saw the company release extensive information about its various technology and entertainment platforms. Still, the presentation had a lot to say about its gaming space. Rightly so: Sony’s “gaming and network services segment” generated $25.1 billion in global hardware, software, and hardware sales. other products during the company’s “fiscal 21” ending in March 2022. (Microsoft won’t have its guidance available until its fiscal year-end in June; its games division said $15.37 billion in sales for fiscal year 2020 as of June 2021.)
Scrolling through the company’s presentation, which combined current numbers with forward-looking estimates, one page stood out: “the exponential growth” of its PC gaming lineup. The result is arguably Sony’s most optimistic admission about the number of Sony games, including previous PlayStation exclusives, that could land on PC over the next nine months.
$300 million, spread over how many games?
There’s no way Sony can hit its sales estimate for FY22 without more new games, and lots of them. Its last two fiscal years of PC game sales total around $115 in revenue, driven by three ports of older PlayStation 4 exclusives on Windows: Horizon Zero Dawn, Days goneand God of the war (2018).
Yet Sony insists its next fiscal year will end with $300 million in PC game sales, a 375% jump year-over-year and nearly triple the combined PC game sales of the two. last years. This bold estimate only gets bolder when we clarify an obvious question: No, Sony is not including sales of Destiny 2which was developed by the Bungie studio recently acquired by Sony, as part of this estimate.
Instead, Sony Interactive Entertainment President Jim Ryan has indicated that this player will be powered in part by the previously announced PC port of Uncharted: Legacy of Thieves Collection (including both Uncharted 4 and its half-suite The lost legacy), as well as two “unannounced” games. Ryan didn’t elaborate on whether the two games in question are simply unannounced ports of existing PlayStation console games or whether they may be entirely new games or franchises that are set to launch simultaneously on PC and PlayStation.
Anyway, in the short term, SIE has yet to release a PC game in its modern push that topped $40 million in revenue in a single calendar year. Its three most recent PC ports have arguably entered a downward trajectory of reduced revenue. If we are to be particularly optimistic about revenue per game, SIE would need no less than five new PC game launches, all selling at gangbuster levels, to approach its bullish estimate.
Nvidia’s 2021 Spoonful of Tea Leaves, Recently Reviewed
Oddly, the best resource we can turn to about potential Sony PC ports comes from the infamous “Nvidia leak”, which included stub entries released on Nvidia’s GeForce NOW servers in September 2021 (and more in November ). The leak had some the truth, confirming totally unexpected prices like the Grand Theft Auto Definitive Trilogy and Ruined King: A League of Legends Story. It also included two of the PC ports eventually announced by Sony.
The remaining games on this September 2021 list, in alphabetical order:
- Demon’s Souls
- Ghost of Tsushima
- Gran Turismo 7
- Helldivers 2
- Forbidden Horizon West
- “Ratchet and Clank” (no subtitle clarifying which sequel)
- Sackboy: A Big Adventure
Note that the list ignores PlayStation-exclusive franchises, like Marvel’s Spiderman and The last of us, in favor of unexpected titles like a From Software PlayStation VR exclusive and an unannounced sequel to a 2015 twin-stick shooter. In other words, this isn’t a catch-all list of best-selling console exclusives. Still, it’s still unclear which of these were officially submitted to Nvidia by Sony as intended PC ports and which, if any, were given Nvidia stub pages out of sheer speculation.
Two games from this list, Return and Ghost of Tsushima, also appeared in a Github leak from November about potential PC game launches from Nvidia servers, though at the time both of those games had PC port dates that have since passed. While Sony and Nvidia can claim plausible deniability of these lists, it’s tempting to re-read them as a way to rack up $300 million in revenue in a single year, even if its inclusion of recent PS5 exclusives raises our eyebrows. . (On the other hand, Sony’s odious decision to link Gran Turismo 7 to an always-online server structure would at least pave its high-speed path to PCs.)
However, Sony’s PC porting plans are shaking up next year, it sowed the seeds for its bullish growth when it acquired PC game porting powerhouse Nixxes nearly a year ago. More interestingly in the context of this week’s PC revenue estimates, it’s worth noting that we still did not see the fruits of this acquisition, because Nixxes did not contribute to the development of the God of the war (2018) which launched earlier this year.
The rest of the presentation heralds further growth in PC game sales in the coming years, as well as an equally bullish push for new games on smartphone platforms. By 2025, SIE estimates that half of its game launch release will be on PlayStation 5, with the other half split roughly 60/40 between PC and mobile platforms, respectively. It also sees the publisher, which has primarily focused on triple-A games unique to the PlayStation 4 era, announce plans to release many more “live service” games, with two unannounced games coming soon. by the end of FY22 and approximately 12 operated by Sony by the end of FY25.